The US–Iran–Israel Conflict and the Reordering of Pakistan's Strategic Environment: Explaining Middle-Power Agency through Material Dynamics and Strategic Narratives
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21806197Keywords:
U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict, Pakistan's Strategic Environment, Structural Realism, Critical Discourse Analysis, Strategic Narratives, Middle-Power, Strategic Autonomy, Energy SecurityAbstract
Purpose: In 2026, the war between the United States, Iran, and Israel proved to be a significant geopolitical shock that redefined the geostrategic environment of West and South Asia. The 2026 U.S.-Iran-Israel war had important ramifications for Pakistan, both in terms of security challenges and its foreign policy, due to Pakistan's exposure to various material risks associated with regional energy market disruptions and maritime routes. On the other hand, the situation presented possibilities for diplomatic adaptability and strategic realignment.
Design/Methodology/Approach: This paper analyses the impact that the relationship between material vulnerabilities and strategic discourses had on the ways Pakistan responded to the situation. Adopting the approach of Qualitative Single-Case Study research, this study combines Structural Realism and Fairclough’s three-dimensional critical discourse analysis to examine official discourses, speeches, media discourses, and international reports from February to June 2026.
Findings: These findings reveal that material obstacles limited Pakistani policy options through heightening fears of energy security, economic stability, and border management. Yet, Pakistan used strategic narratives focusing on neutrality, international law, strategic autonomy, and state responsibility to maintain diplomatic flexibility and assert credibility as a negotiating partner. In fact, it is through these two processes, which were interlinked with each other in nature, that Pakistan was able to turn its systemic weaknesses into strengths and thus boost its diplomatic importance.
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