India’s Evolving Pre-emptive Counterforce Nuclear Strategy: Pakistani Perspective

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine four factors contributing to India’s inclination to shift its existing nuclear doctrine of 2003 towards a preemptive counterforce strategy against Pakistan. These are; India’s advancement and modernisation of nuclear force capabilities. Second, India's planning to carry-out a limited war against Pakistan below the nuclear threshold. Third, recent statements indicating that India might abandon its existing no first use policy. Fourth, Pakistan’s development of dual-use short-range platforms such as Nasr and declaration of Full Spectrum Deterrence posture might have influenced India to reconsider its doctrine. The paper argues that India’s evolving nuclear strategy of preemptive counterforce towards Pakistan may result in inadvertent escalation and first-strike instability between India and Pakistan. The paper is divided into four sections. The first section briefly develops an understanding of nuclear doctrines in general. The second section evaluates the formulation and main contours of India’s existing nuclear doctrine. The third section analyses shifts in India’s nuclear doctrine due to four major factors mentioned above. The fourth section evaluates the risks of this emerging nuclear doctrine.