Arms Race Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific (2020–2026): US-China Strategic Rivalry and the Escalating Security Dilemma in the Taiwan Strait
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19685881Keywords:
Structural Realism, Indo-Pacific Security, Discourse Analysis, Arms Race Dynamics, Security Dilemma, Taiwan StraitAbstract
Purpose: This study examines the arms race phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific region for the period 2020-2026 through the prism of structural realism theory, highlighting the importance of security competition fueled by systemic pressure associated with changes in the evolving distribution of power between the United States and China. Specifically, the discussion posits that the relative rise of China and the decline in the hegemonic position of the United States have created a clear security dilemma in which both countries develop their military potential as a means to ensure their security under conditions of anarchy. Design/Methodology/Approach: Based on qualitative discourse analysis of policy papers including the Indo-Pacific Strategy (2022) of the United States, Department of Defense reports and Chinese defense white papers, the study reveals that both powers see each other's actions as a threat, thereby reinforcing action-reaction cycle of military buildup, alliance consolidation, and strategic posturing. This is seen in the Taiwan Strait, which appears to be the primary focus of both powers where the influence of structural forces can be clearly witnessed because of the combined geostrategic importance and dynamics of power transition and deterrence.
Findings: Unlike earlier studies which merely focuses more on understanding arms race from the perspective of capabilities and crises, this work brings structural realism together with discourse analysis in an effort to highlight the influence of structural forces in shaping state narratives
Implications/Originality/Value: By examining the period from 2020 to 2026 and connecting changes in structural power relations with strategic behavior, this study provides a theoretical and empirically sound contribution to research on Indo-Pacific security competition.
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