The Index Value Trend Analysis of Rural-Urban Migration in Pakistan: The Current and Future Perspectives

Abstract

Pakistan has the highest proportion of urban population in the South Asian region. However, it shows a decreasing trend of rural-urban migration. The objective of this study is to examine the index value trends of the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of rural-urban migrants in Pakistan. It analyzes the trends of different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the rural-urban migrants; age groups, gender, literacy and levels of education, marital status, and employment in three vital sectors of the economy (i.e. agriculture, industry, and services). It uses various issues of Labour Force Survey (LFS) of Pakistan; all eleven surveys from 2001-02 to 2014-15. The migration towards the rural and urban areas shows a positive and negative trend respectively. The rural-urban migration is age selective. The rural-urban migration of males shows a negative trend while migration of females shows a positive trend. Most of the rural-urban migrants are married. There are higher probabilities for highly educated migrants in obtaining urban employment; might be limited for illiterate and less educated migrants. The elder males migrate for economic reasons while females and young males migrate due to social family bounds. The occupations in agriculture and industry show positive trends while services sector shows a negative trend of rural-urban migration.